Ukraine and US Unable to Conclude Rare Earth Minerals Deal
On Friday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met with US President Donald Trump in Washington to sign an agreement granting the US access to Ukraine’s rare earth mineral deposits. However, the meeting took an unexpected turn, ending in a heated exchange between Zelensky, Trump, and Vice President JD Vance. Following Zelensky’s early departure, the White House announced that no agreement had been signed.
Zelensky had earlier conveyed hope that this “initial” agreement might lead to enhanced collaboration. Yet, he acknowledged that Ukraine still hadn’t obtained any security assurances from the US—a crucial point for him. Trump contended that the agreement could enable American taxpayers to “recover their funds” from the aid given to Ukraine during the conflict, but emphasized that Europe should assume the main role in ensuring Kyiv’s security.
What Are the Terms of the Agreement?
On Wednesday, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal declared that Kyiv and Washington had completed a draft of the agreement, which was made public on Friday morning. This agreement proposed the establishment of an “investment fund” to aid Ukraine’s rebuilding initiatives.
Shmyhal stated that both nations would manage the fund on “equal terms.” Under the agreement, Ukraine would allocate 50% of its future revenue from state-owned mineral resources, oil, and gas to the fund. The proceeds would then be invested in initiatives aimed at enhancing Ukraine’s security, stability, and economic growth.
The US, in turn, pledged a long-term financial commitment to fostering a stable and prosperous Ukraine, subject to US law. The agreement also stipulated that the US would own the maximum share of the fund permitted under American regulations.
Conflicts Regarding Mineral Rights and Financial Conditions
It seems that the discord between Trump and Zelensky intensified due to particular aspects of the minerals agreement. Initially, the US proposed a $500 billion stake in Ukraine’s mineral assets, which Zelensky declined. Sources suggest that this demand was subsequently revoked.
Tymofiy Mylovanov, who previously served as a Ukrainian minister and now leads the Kyiv School of Economics, stated that Washington’s original proposal threatened Ukraine’s sovereignty and risked economic downfall. However, he observed that the US has adjusted its stance, presenting a fairer agreement centered on joint ownership, without making claims on past assistance. He believes this revised approach could eventually advantage Ukraine.
Trump has highlighted the financial perspective, claiming on Tuesday that the US has given Ukraine roughly $300 billion to $350 billion in aid and that a minerals agreement could help recoup this expenditure. Conversely, the Kiel Institute, a German research organization, estimates that the real US support totals $119 billion.
Does the Agreement Include Security Guarantees?
An important issue for Zelensky has been the insertion of clear security assurances from the US. On Wednesday, he confirmed that these guarantees had not been obtained.
“Including a provision on security guarantees for Ukraine was essential,” Zelensky commented.
When asked whether he would abandon the agreement if security assurances were not provided, he responded: “I want to secure a NATO path or something similar. Without security guarantees, there will be no ceasefire, and nothing will function.”
Even though there are no direct security commitments, the agreement contains language expressing US support for Ukraine’s pursuit of security assurances to secure enduring peace.
Zelensky maintained that Ukraine would not finalize the agreement until he and Trump reached an understanding on security assurances and determined how to integrate them into the preliminary deal. Trump, however, downplayed the idea of direct US security guarantees, stating that such responsibilities should now be shouldered by Europe. He added that the presence of American workers in Ukraine would offer “automatic security.”
Zelensky initially proposed the idea of a minerals agreement as a way to offer the US a concrete motivation to maintain its support for Ukraine. Trump has implied that, in return for granting mineral access, Ukraine would ensure the “right to keep fighting,” and that the US would continue providing military gear and ammunition “until an agreement with Russia is achieved.”
The US president has additionally asserted that Russia is willing to permit European peacekeepers in Ukraine. However, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has rejected this option.
When Will the Agreement Be Signed?
Trump initially stated that the deal would be signed at Friday’s White House meeting. While Ukrainian Prime Minister Shmyhal confirmed that a final version of the agreement had been prepared, Zelensky’s adviser, Mykhaylo Podolyak, clarified that only a framework agreement was set to be signed.
No agreement was signed, though. Instead, the meeting escalated into a clash between Trump and Zelensky in the Oval Office. At one juncture, an irate Trump accused Zelensky of not showing enough gratitude for US aid and cautioned that he was “risking World War Three.”
“You need to make a deal, or we’re out,” Trump reportedly told Zelensky. “You don’t have the leverage.”
In reply, Zelensky emphasized that “no compromises” could be made with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Trump later shared on Truth Social, accusing Zelensky of having “disrespected the US in its esteemed Oval Office” and declaring: “He can return when he is prepared for peace.”
Currently, it is uncertain if or when the agreement will be executed.
Ukraine’s Mineral Wealth
Kyiv estimates that Ukraine holds around 5% of the world’s “critical raw materials.” This includes approximately 19 million metric tons of confirmed graphite reserves, placing Ukraine among the top five global suppliers of this mineral, which is crucial for electric vehicle battery production.
Additionally, Ukraine has significant deposits of titanium and lithium. The country also claims to hold substantial reserves of rare earth elements—17 minerals essential for military technology, wind turbines, and electronic devices—though some experts dispute the exact scale of these reserves.
Adding to the complexity, certain mineral-abundant regions of Ukraine are presently under Russian control. Economy Minister Yulia Svyrydenko has indicated that mineral deposits with an estimated value of $350 billion are situated in areas occupied by Russia.
A further challenge to mineral extraction is the extensive presence of unexploded landmines. Experts estimate that approximately 25% of Ukraine’s terrain is affected, especially in the conflict-ravaged eastern areas.
Time poses another issue. Even if the agreement reaches completion, it may take years before the mining and export of these resources deliver concrete economic advantages.
“These resources are not stored in a warehouse ready for dispatch—they need to be developed,” explained Mylovanov. “Should the US invest, it could eventually prove advantageous for everyone involved.”
What is Russia’s Response?
Russian President Vladimir Putin has yet to comment on the reported details of the US-Ukraine deal. However, on Monday, he told Russian state television that Moscow is prepared to “offer” mineral resources to American companies for joint ventures, including mining in Russia’s “new territories”—a reference to occupied areas of eastern Ukraine.
Putin dismissed the potential US-Ukraine deal as insignificant, stating that Russia “undoubtedly has, I want to emphasize, significantly more of these resources than Ukraine.”
“Regarding the new territories, we are open to involving foreign partners in developing these areas, which have rejoined the Russian Federation,” he stated.
Meanwhile, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov suggested on Tuesday that the situation remains fluid: “Whether [Ukraine and the US] will sign this agreement or something else, we’ll see. There have been no official statements on this matter yet.”
